![]() ![]() They face global headwinds (China’s slowdown, the end of the commodity super cycle, the Fed’s exit from zero policy rates). Second, emerging markets are in serious trouble. ![]() ![]() While China is more likely to have a bumpy landing than a hard one, investors’ concerns have yet to be laid to rest, owing to the ongoing growth slowdown and continued capital flight. This is because there are now at least seven sources of global tail risk, as opposed to the single factors – the eurozone crisis, the Federal Reserve “taper tantrum,” a possible Greek exit from the eurozone, and a hard economic landing in China – that have fuelled volatility in recent years.įirst, worries about a hard landing in China and its likely impact on the stock market and the value of the renminbi have returned with a vengeance. My answer is a straightforward no, but that the recent episode of global financial market turmoil is likely to be more serious than any period of volatility and risk-off behaviour since 2009. The question I am asked most often nowadays is this: are we back to 2008 and another global financial crisis and recession? ![]()
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